Support for broad-based government doubles in six months - TIFA survey

The survey, which tracked public opinion on the coalition between President William Ruto and associates of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, shows a shift in Kenyan attitudes toward the controversial political arrangement.

It showed that opposition to the arrangement had dropped from 64% in August to 48% in November, representing the lowest level recorded across all three surveys conducted by TIFA. The August figure represented the peak of resistance to the arrangement, likely influenced by the violent suppression of protests in June and July that remained fresh in public memory at the time.

The broad-based government emerged last year when President Ruto launched an Africa-wide campaign supporting Raila Odinga's bid to become African Union Commission Chairman.

The two leaders subsequently announced a partnership that effectively neutralized ODM's role as the official parliamentary Opposition.

Following Odinga's defeat in the AU race in February, President Ruto appointed several senior ODM elected leaders to Cabinet positions.

Additional Odinga associates were named to roles including Permanent Secretary, ambassador, and members of parastatal boards. The partnership was further strengthened through multiple presidential visits to Odinga's Nyanza region to commission development projects and other activities.

The TIFA survey was launched just weeks before the death of Raila Odinga on October 15 while receiving medical treatment in India.

Even before this development, there had been growing disquiet among core ODM supporters about the party's position in the next general election, scheduled for less than two years away.

Odinga's passing appears to have intensified disputes within ODM and the broader Odinga family, particularly regarding the 2027 presidential contest.

According to TIFA Research, Kenyans' views about the broad-based government were collected and correlated with responses to other survey questions to assess the extent of division on this issue.

The survey findings suggest that as the political arrangement has matured and the initial shock has subsided, more Kenyans have either accepted or warmed to the broad-based Government concept, though opposition remains substantial at nearly half the population.