Mogadishu heads to first local elections in decades under tight security

The east African country is struggling to emerge from decades of conflict and chaos, battling a bloody Islamist insurgency and frequent natural disasters.

Thursday's polls will serve as a pilot test of the direct voting system championed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, amid opposition from member states who say it is a bid to centralise power in Mogadishu.

According to the country's electoral body more than 1,600 candidates will contest 390 local council seats in the southeastern Banadir region.

Key opposition parties have boycotted the election, accusing the federal government of "unilateral election processes".

Somalia's system of direct voting was abolished after Siad Barre took power in 1969. Since the fall of his authoritarian government in 1991, the country's political system has revolved around a clan-based structure.

Universal suffrage is, however, practised in the breakaway region of Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 but has never been internationally recognised.

In May 2023, the semi-autonomous northern state of Puntland held local elections by direct vote, but later abandoned the system for local and regional polls in January.

The upcoming vote has been postponed three times this year.

The volatile nation has stepped up security ahead of the polls, with security minister Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail saying more than 10,000 security personnel will be deployed across the capital.

Somalia has been battling Al-Shabaab since the mid-2000s, but security has deteriorated sharply this year, with the group retaking dozens of towns and villages and reversing most gains from the 2022–2023 military campaign.

The electoral body boss Abdikarin Ahmed Hassan on Sunday said all movement would be restricted on election day and "the whole country will be shut down".

Nearly 400,000 voters are expected to cast ballots, with Hassan saying buses will be provided to transport voters to polling stations.

On Monday, the civil aviation authority announced that the country's main airport would be closed on voting day.

--"Stage-managed"--

While the vote marks a pivotal moment for Somalia, security analyst Samira Gaid expressed scepticism, saying the process was "stage-managed" to make the Horn of Africa nation "appear like a democracy"

"There is close to zero civilian participation. It's mostly a government and security forces operation," Gaid told AFP, adding that voter registration exercise had not been successful.

The political strain is fuelling tensions ahead of next year's national elections, with parliament's mandate expiring in April and the president's term ending in May.

The International Crisis Group has warned that the situation resembles the 2021 political crisis that erupted under former president Mohamed Abdullahi "Farmajo". That led to clashes between clan-based factions after he failed to organise parliamentary and presidential elections before his mandate expired.

With the clock ticking, there is still no consensus on how the 2026 election will be conducted, and the opposition and federal member states are threatening to run a parallel process if no agreement is reached.