SAM'S SENSE: The national counting problem

Three years into the Kenya Kwanza administration, numbers are everywhere.

The government has been emphatic on how it has made progress, especially in turning around the economy. How the inflation rate has fallen from 9.6 per cent in September 2022 to 4.5 per cent this August 2025. Farmers are now harvesting up to 67 million bags of maize, almost double the national harvest three years ago. And prices of basic commodities have fallen, especially unga.

But notice how very few, if any, of those who speak or count for government have spoken about the debt accumulation? For the record, the country piled on at least Ksh.3 trillion more — a trillion shillings each year.

In that period, a conversation has thrived on the state of the Social Health Authority (SHA). But the figures are shifty. We have been told of Ksh.82 billion worth of claims filed by health providers, and how Ksh.10 billion worth of claims are potentially fraudulent and now subject to DCI forensics.

But wait — how much money has SHA collected from SHIF deductions? It depends on whom you ask. Ask one manager, and the monthly contributions average at Ksh.6.5 billion from 3.7 million Kenyans. Ask the CEO, and the figure may change to 4.5 million Kenyans who can raise up to Ksh.8 billion a month lately. Then you ask what the total SHIF collection is. The answer begins to dance — between Ksh.50 billion and Ksh.78 billion. Should you ask higher up, the figure hits Ksh.90 billion. If we cannot agree on how much is collected, how do we plan?

Even payouts are blurred. SHA has disbursed Ksh.53 billion: a figure covering both SHIF and the Primary Healthcare Fund. When you ask for clarity, you may be told, “We can provide a written statement.” And we wait for the written statement.

If health insurance numbers are fuzzy, try housing. Have you heard that Kenyans have voluntarily contributed Ksh.600 billion to build houses for Kenyans?

If you ask the CEO of the Affordable Housing Board, it’s about Ksh.134 billion. If you ask higher up, it’s USD 4 billion while in Ethiopia, and Ksh.600 billion when hosting Kenyan delegations at home.

There are nearly 200,000 housing units under construction — again, depending on whom you ask. The Controller of Budget will tell you that as at end of June 2025, over 114,000 units were at various stages of construction, some as low as 13 per cent completion. To build that, the Controller puts a figure of Ksh.62.3 billion being spent in the same period out of a budget of Ksh.64 billion.

The Affordable Housing Board will tell you the budget was Ksh.100 billion.

Then you ask, how many jobs has the programme created? Those that count for the government give a figure of 320,000 and growing, a figure that has doubled since last October.

And then you check with the government’s statistician, the KNBS. And you find very minimal change in the number of construction jobs.

In any case, the construction sector contracted, albeit marginally, in 2024. Cement consumption also declined by 7 percentage points.

You see, numbers are numbers. They are not emotional. They are statistical and perhaps a better way to guide our conversations and decisions in our extremely polarised society.

So I ask: do we really want to count? Or is counting too dangerous if it risks puncturing the narrative?

Then I remember, Math is now compulsory in every classroom. Perhaps a good time to return to the basics and hopefully, make it make sense.