Trump administration backs AGOA renewal as Africa faces bleak trading future with US

This has given a flicker of life to the flailing trade framework which has seen qualifying Sub-Sahara Africa export a number of products into the US at zero tariff. AGOA is a nonreciprocal U.S. trade preference program and law enacted in the year 2000 and subsequently renewed at expiry by different administrations through Congress. 

AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products, with the goal of promoting economic growth, trade, and investment in the region. 

AGOA aims to foster free markets and good governance while also strengthening the U.S. economic relationship with Africa. The Clinton-era program was scheduled to expire today, 30th September 2025.

On the other hand, the damage done by the reciprocal Trump tariffs is certain to ensure a steady decline in apparel and tuna exports from countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Lesotho, Eswatini, Cape Verde and South Africa according to an analysis by the International Trade Center (ITC) in Geneva, Switzerland. 

ITC says there is bound to be big drops in shipments to the US from Africa across the board unless there is a dramatic shift of policy along the lines of AGOA which nonetheless is on its way out.

Over the years, since 2000, there has been an annual gathering, known as the AGOA Forum, held between U.S. and AGOA country officials to discuss trade-related issues and its implementation. At the same time AGOA has provided direction to selected U.S. government agencies regarding their trade and investment support activities in the SSA region. 

AGOA has been the basis of U.S. trade policy toward SSA since 2000, through which various US administrations via Congress sought to increase U.S. trade and investment ties with the region, by promoting economic development via trade, whilst encouraging the rule of law and market-oriented reforms. Congress has had the mandate to extend AGOA’s authorization, and by specifically modifying the program to promote other congressional priorities in the region.

During the 2024 annual review, then-President Biden did not alter the list of countries eligible for AGOA benefits for the year 2025 and therefore seventeen SSA countries still remained unqualified for the program's preference benefits in 2025. 

In East Africa, Rwanda's AGOA benefits for apparel exports were suspended on 31st July 2018, following a random review in response to increased Rwandan tariff barriers on used clothing imports from the United States. However, Rwanda stuck to its guns and to date discourages the importation of used clothes to its jurisdiction.

Since 2000, the US Congress continually directed the executive to seek for reciprocal trade and investment opportunities with AGOA countries and more so with its regional trade bodies such as the Southern Africa Customs Union, the East Africa Community, the Economic Community of West African States among others. 

However, in his first term, President Trump initiated bilateral trade negotiations with Kenya in 2020 which remained inconclusive as he did not make it back to the White-House. When President Biden took power, he discontinued the Trump-era one negotiations and instead chose a some-what similar path by launching the US - Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) in 2022, which did not cover market access for the US, unlike the discontinued Trump negotiations. 

Trump-era two has been vague on whether it will carry on STIP negotiations which is increasing unlikely due to his preference for reciprocity in U.S. bilateral trade relationships that has resulted in country-specific reciprocal tariff actions to address foreign trade barriers. 

Towards this end, President Trump has invoked his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to impose a 10% tariff on all imports into the US. President Trump has promised and indeed implemented further individualized reciprocal higher tariffs to be imposed on countries with which the US has largest trade deficits, and which impose “high” tariffs and/or non-tariff barriers on US imports. Most of these the tariffs took effect from 5th April 2025 to date.

The death of AGOA would nonetheless spell a contradiction to specific African countries. It will open a window of opportunity for other African nations to trade with the US on reciprocal terms. Countries such as Angola, a top oil producer, Senegal, which has critical minerals such as titanium and zircon, of which the some have now have exempted from Trump’s sweeping tariffs would greatly benefit from trade with the US, must be waiting on the wings to reap big from this windfall. 

Africa should also look inward to make use of trade within its regional blocks as well as the rolled out  intra-Africa trade is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This is a flagship project of the African Union aiming to create a single market and boost trade among African countries. Let African nations make use of The International Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF, a significant platform that provides space for businesses to connect and exchange trade and investment information within Africa.

Despite the White House supporting AGOA for an extension by a period of one year, Washington, under Trump, have odds stacked high against a comprehensive renewal as it runs contrary to Trump’s imposition of unilateral tariffs that for African countries have been between ten to thirty percent. 

President Trump’s rule of the thumb has been to impose reciprocal tariffs using emergency powers which have effectively killed off any benefits AGOA would bring to Sub Saharan African (SSA) countries. 

Africa should await a formal end to the program which would largely be symbolic within the year because coupled with the slashing of “free-aid” channeled through the now defunct USAID, the US has dealt Africa a blow which points to one thing; the US under Trump is totally disengaging from Africa.