Tobacco Bill could fuel black market, kill jobs – survey shows

According to a new nationwide survey by the Campaign for Safer Alternatives (CASA), the Bill, if passed, would not protect public health but instead drive consumers to the black market, enrich criminals, and destroy legitimate jobs.

The survey, which polled more than 1,000 adults, revealed widespread fears that the ban will backfire. Nearly three out of four respondents said prohibiting vapes and nicotine pouches would fuel illegal sales and black-market growth, putting consumers and underage users at risk.

Among current users of safer alternatives, 81 percent said such measures would push products underground, with only 1 percent strongly disagreeing. More than half of users admitted they could easily access banned flavours through illicit channels, showing how difficult it would be to enforce the restrictions.

CASA chairman Joseph Magero, who quit smoking by switching to safer products, said the Bill would worsen Kenya’s illicit cigarette trade, which already controls 45 percent of the market.

He warned that prohibition has failed elsewhere, pointing to Germany, where a ban on nicotine pouches created a thriving black market with over a million people now buying the products illegally.

“Bans and excessive restrictions will only drive consumers to criminals, fuel unemployment and deepen poverty,” Magero said. “Safer nicotine alternatives are saving lives and easing the public health burden around the world. Banning them in Kenya is a gift to the black market and a death sentence for thousands of smokers.”

The survey further showed that Kenyans are strongly in favour of tobacco harm reduction (THR) policies. Eighty-three percent of respondents said they would support government adoption of THR measures, while only six percent were opposed.

An overwhelming majority, 85 percent, believe encouraging smokers to switch to safer products would help them quit conventional cigarettes. Nearly two-thirds said the government should run awareness campaigns to promote switching.

The findings also highlight Kenya’s wider economic concerns, with unemployment identified as the country’s most pressing challenge by two in three respondents. Stakeholders argue that instead of fostering industries that could create jobs, the government risks shutting them down.

The debate comes just a week after bar owners and retailers petitioned the Senate to halt further proceedings on the Bill until their concerns, including enhanced public participation, are addressed.