Ruto’s cost of living promise tested as Kenyans grapple with high food prices

While inflation has stabilized within the Central Bank’s target range, the prices of key household commodities remain high, leaving many Kenyans grappling with everyday expenses.

In mid-2022, as President William Ruto campaigned on promises to reduce the cost of living, Kenya was experiencing sharp increases in food prices.

Annual inflation had surged to 9.2 percent by September 2022, breaching the Central Bank’s upper target of 7.5 percent. A 2-kilogram packet of maize flour retailed at an average of Sh180.80, while sugar hit Sh300, placing immense pressure on household budgets.

Today, inflation has eased to 3.8 percent year-on-year—comfortably within the Central Bank’s medium-term range. However, the relief has not fully translated to Kenyan kitchens.

Data between June 2024 and June 2025 shows that food prices continue to rise: carrots increased by 11.1 percent, cabbage by 10.8 percent, sugar by 5.5 percent, maize grain by 2.8 percent, and maize flour by 2.1 percent.

“Over the past two months, inflation has started edging up again because food costs are climbing,” noted John Kinuthia, Senior Programs Officer at Bajeti. “We saw inflation rise to 4.1 percent in July, driven largely by a 6.8 percent increase in food items.”

Yet some experts argue that inflation figures only tell part of the story. Economist Ken Gichinga of Mentoria stressed that unemployment, not headline inflation, is the country’s biggest challenge.

“Our labour market is hemorrhaging,” he explained. “If a household had two spouses working and now only one is employed, the burden on that single income increases. Even if prices stabilize, disposable income is stretched thin.”

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics paints a grim picture: nearly 40 percent of Kenyans continue to live below the poverty line. The shrinking job market has exacerbated economic hardship, with many households increasingly relying on a single income earner.

Kinuthia warns that without adequate government support in delivering basic services, more citizens risk sliding deeper into poverty. “If people are forced to spend on private services that should be provided publicly, it further depletes their already limited incomes,” he said.

According to Gichinga, one key indicator that Kenyans are worse off today is the surge in non-performing loans.

“Non-performing loans used to be in single digits. The latest data puts them at 17.6 percent, which shows businesses are really under pressure,” he observed.