Nairobi Governor race: Babu Owino, Dennis Waweru ahead as Sakaja trails - New poll

Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino and former Dagoretti South legislator Dennis Waweru are emerging as the leading contenders in the race for Nairobi County Governor, with incumbent Johnson Sakaja trailing them, according to a new poll by the Centre for African Progress (CAP).

The survey, conducted between October 6 and 9, 2025, shows Babu Owino commanding 36 per cent support among registered voters, while Dennis Waweru follows closely at 33 per cent.

Governor Sakaja stands at 14 per cent, with Embakasi North MP James Gakuya polling 5 per cent, and former KICC board Chair Irungu Nyakera at 1 per cent. Eleven per cent of respondents remain undecided.

CAP, in a statement to newsrooms, noted that it interviewed 5,000 registered voters across all 85 wards using quota and purposive sampling in the country’s administrative and political capital, which is the largest county by population and registered voters at 2.49 million voters and an estimated 5.5 million residents as of 2024.

According to the firm’s CEO Onchari Oyieyo, the results confirm Owino’s sustained popularity in the capital, particularly among the youth.

“Owino appeals to young people in a way that very few modern politicians do. He is the favourite among Gen Zs who almost turned President William Ruto’s government upside down back in 2024 when they were dissatisfied with the government’s proposed spending bill,” Mr. Onchari said.

The poll also paints a grim picture of public sentiment toward the current county administration, with 90 per cent of respondents saying Nairobi is headed in the wrong direction, while only 7 per cent believe it is on the right track. Three per cent were unsure.

Mr. Onchari said the numbers indicate a deep erosion of confidence in Governor Sakaja’s leadership.

CAP says it will release one more poll in early December to conclude its 2025 tracking study, which the firm says will show whether the emerging trends hold as the city heads toward the 2027 General Election.

Nairobi remains the country’s economic powerhouse, contributing $16.8 billion to the GDP as of 2024.

The county’s political dynamics are therefore closely watched, with analysts noting that its leadership contest often sets the tone for national politics.