More Kenyans believe Ruto's re-election will be difficult after Raila's demise - TIFA

The survey reveals a divided electorate grappling with the implications of Raila's absence from the political arena.

While a large percentage believes Odinga's absence would complicate Ruto's second bid, 30 per cent of respondents believe it will make re-election easier for the incumbent president. Another 18 per cent see no difference in Ruto's prospects, while 10 per cent remain unsure about the impact.

According to the research findings, Raila's passing is perceived more as a complicating factor than a political advantage for President Ruto.

The poll suggests that voters remain divided on outcomes, with the president's performance still seen as highly contingent on his administration's delivery rather than the opposition's configuration.

The political party landscape has undergone a significant transformation since the last general election.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains the most popular political party in Kenya at 20 per cent, followed by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent.

However, both parties have experienced substantial declines in support since August 2022, when ODM commanded 32 percent and UDA enjoyed 38 per cent backing from the electorate.

The erosion of support for the two dominant parties has resulted in a dramatic increase in undecided voters, who now constitute the largest segment of the electorate at 30 per cent as of November 2025, up from just 15 per cent in August 2022.

This represents a doubling of the undecided population and suggests that no party currently commands a decisive or stable base, leaving voter loyalty highly fluid.

Other parties trail significantly behind the two leaders. Jubilee Party stands at 11 per cent, while smaller parties, including Wiper (4 per cent), DCP (6 per cent), Ford-Kenya (1 per cent), and DAP-Kenya (1 percent), struggle to gain meaningful traction. The "Other" category accounts for 4 per cent of support.

The poll reveals that Kenyans expect ODM to return to opposition by exiting the current Broad-Based Government, with 50 per cent of respondents anticipating this move ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Only 30 per cent expect the party to remain in the coalition government, while 20 per cent are uncertain about ODM's future direction.

However, there is significant disagreement within the electorate about who should lead ODM's charge in 2027. The largest segment, 34 per cent of respondents, prefer that the party choose and support a current ODM leader as its presidential candidate.

Another 24 per cent believe ODM should support no one but leave the choice to its voters, while 20 per cent want the party to help choose and support another Azimio-Opposition leader as the candidate.

19 per cent of Kenyans would support President Ruto as ODM's candidate if he were to join the party and if UDA and Kenya Kwanza have no candidate of their own, suggesting some openness to political realignment. Only 3 per cent offered no opinion on the matter.

The TIFA Research poll shows an increasingly undecided electorate, major parties losing ground, and disagreement over opposition leadership. The path to 2027 remains unclear for all political actors as Kenyans expect ODM to step back into opposition, even as they disagree fundamentally on who should lead that charge in the post-Raila era.