Mbeere North by-elections: Ruto’s litmus test in slippery mountain

For the Mbeere North Constituency in Embu County, a coveted elective seat sought after by two top political factions, has remained a point of top contention.

The ruling party, United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the United Opposition's Democratic Party (DP) have fronted their candidates set to contest at the ballot.

The position fell vacant after Geoffrey Ruku was appointed as Public Service Cabinet Secretary (CS) in April 2025, and the position remained vacant pending the appointment of Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) commissioners to pave the way for a mini-poll.

Meanwhile, the retired President Uhuru Kenyatta-led Jubilee Party has resolved to support the joint candidate fielded by the opposition faction.

Likewise, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), Eugene Wamalwa's DAP-K and Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper have also vowed to back the Justin Muturi-led DP party.

UDA has also settled Leonard Muriuki, aka Leo, to carry its flag in the by-election.

Whoever wins the seat will significantly boost the odds for the 2027 General Election.

"It was agreed that we must maximise our efforts to ensure our candidate wins as there are elements even within our side of the political divide rooting for the opposition," said Tigania East MP Mpuru Aburi, told the Standard after a meeting between DP Kithure Kindiki and Mt Kenya MPs.

Henchmen's big test

President William Ruto's loyalists, DP Kindiki and CS Ruku, as expected, are the chief lobbyists for the mini election to add the constituency to Ruto's political purse as the climb to summit the "mountain" intensifies.

For Ruku, he stares at a conundrum as he is still a member of the DP party, but does not see eye-to-eye with the party leader, Muturi.

He will also have to stage an offensive campaign against his party, as he will be forced to support UDA's candidate, Leo.

CS Ruku has even taken on his party boss, accusing him of misleading the Mbeere community into opposition politics despite having previously benefited from the government.

He challenged him to stop endorsing aspirants with questionable leadership credentials, urging them instead to support capable individuals who can win influential parliamentary committee positions and effectively lobby for development.

“If they truly care about Mbeere, let them bring their own sons who are educated and able to walk into Parliament, sit on key committees, and deliver for the people. Leadership is not just about popularity; it’s about capacity and competence,” he emphasised.

“JB (Muturi), I respect you. But your differences with the President should not be settled by misleading the Mbeere community. Let’s put the people first."

On his part, DP Kindiki has held meetings with Mt. Kenya political leaders in a bid to bolster Ruto's support in the region and in the mini polls.

The duo has managed to woo Mbeere elders to support UDA's candidate.

Unrest jitters

DCP leader Gachagua has claimed that there are plans to attack him as he plans to conduct campaigns for the United Opposition candidate, calling on Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja to act in haste.

He has alleged that there are threats made by persons linked to CS Ruku and UDA Chairperson and Embu County Governor Cecily Mbarire to stage an attack against him.

UDA has, however, told Gachagua that his letter "reads more like a satirical drama script" and is based on falsities.

It further argued that Gachagua is only desperate to spark unrest and division and exposes his flawed political record of using "abusive, insulting and offensive language against leaders who have rejected your polarising political rhetoric".

CS Ruku has also scoffed at Gachagua's claims, saying that they are based on hate speech and whipping up emotions and hatred.

"Gachagua knows well that it is the Directorate of Criminal Investigations that is mandated by law to receive, record and investigate complaints made by members of the public and to make appropriate recommendations to the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP). The letter to Mr Douglas Kanja, was motivated more by Gachagua's usual dramatisations than by his quest and search for criminal justice," Ruku said in a statement.

The slippery climb

The Mt Kenya region has for aeons been an electoral stronghold since it holds a significant majority of Kenya's population.

Politicians, particularly presidential aspirants, have heavily depended on the region to secure victory in election cycles.

President Ruto has, however, suffered a thinning support from the region after his administration's policies became unpopular after taking power in 2022.

He has since carefully attempted to charm the region, an attempt that has been challenged by the United Opposition, which is seemingly winning the region's confidence.