Life after Raila: ODM faces loyalty test as analysts warn of ‘parasites’

The death of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga has opened up debate about the party's future and its inner circles. Political analysts warn that the movement risks being overrun by self-serving politicians.

Speaking on Citizen TV’s Daybreak program on Tuesday, political commentator Barrack Muluka described some figures within ODM as political “parasites” who depended on Odinga’s influence for survival and are now seeking new alliances following his death.

“The parasites need hosts to survive. Without a host, they will not,” said Dr Muluka.

“They found Raila Odinga as the host, and now that the host has gone, they are saying they have found a new one: President William Ruto. What happens next depends on what the warriors in ODM will do about the parasites. If you do not deal with them, they will infest and kill the environment.”

Muluka’s comments echo growing concern among ODM loyalists about members perceived to be warming up to President Ruto’s administration since Odinga’s passing last week.

During the long-time opposition leader’s burial in Bondo, Siaya County, on Sunday, the party’s members seemed to disagree on the party’s way forward ahead of the 2027 polls.

For instance, while Odinga allies in President William Ruto’s government, such as Cabinet Secretaries, praised Odinga’s co-operation with Ruto, the party secretary-general, Edwin Sifuna, criticised it.

In Tuesday’s Daybreak discussion, former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) president Nelson Havi distinguished between what he called ODM “warriors”, those loyal to Odinga’s ideology, and “parasites” driven by self-interest.

“Within ODM right now, there are parasites, but there are also strong men -- the warriors. Edwin Sifuna, Caleb Amisi, Babu Owino… those are warriors created out of a strong system,” said Havi.

“Then there are those who spoke repeatedly during Baba’s funeral, saying, ‘This is where Baba left us, we will not depart from here.’ Those are the parasites. Look out for them, ostracise them, remove them, and nurture the warriors, because Raila was a warrior.”

Former Makueni Governor and law professor Kivutha Kibwana warned that the 'broad-based government' formed after Ruto and Odinga forged a working agreement last year may not easily accommodate all interests from the ODM side.

“Going forward, it will not be easy for ODM leaders to remain in government circles because the president will not allow people to come in and tell him what to do; that is his nature,” Prof Kibwana said.

“Whether they are warriors or parasites, those in ODM must understand that they can only continue at the behest of the president.”

Kibwana argued that if citizens begin to feel short-changed by the current political arrangement, many politicians could shift allegiance to align with public sentiment.

“This absence of Raila calls on the president to do more,” he said.

At Sunday's burial ceremony, President Ruto said ODM will either form the next government or be part of it.

Ruto said his government would continue to work closely with ODM in honour of Odinga’s legacy and belief in multi-party democracy.

“I assure ODM members that we will support them, because Baba believed in the multiplicity of parties,” the President said.

“The strength of ODM matters to me because it is how we are going to have a strong democracy. ODM will either form the next government or be a part of the next government.”

He vowed to protect the party’s role in Kenya’s political landscape, warning against attempts to weaken or isolate it.

“What I will not accept, in honour of Odinga, is people playing with ODM to make it an alienated opposition party,” Ruto said.

For now, Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, Odinga’s elder brother, has been appointed ODM’s acting leader.

A National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting last Thursday unanimously agreed that Oginga take over until the committee meets again to chart the way forward.