Fears of Haiti Style collapse grow as goon culture takes root ahead of 2027 polls

The alarm has grown loud enough that some leaders now openly liken the moment to Haiti, the Caribbean nation whose political order has all but collapsed under the weight of armed gangs.

"If you want to go to Haiti, Haiti is here, and the violence has got the hand of the state," Siaya Governor James Orengo said.

United Green Movement party leader David Maraga went further. "We are slowly descending to the state of Haiti. Haiti started like this," he warned.

The comparison is deliberate. Haiti's descent followed years of decay in public life, with gangs seizing control of the country and vigilante networks sustained by a political establishment whose roots reach back to the authoritarian rule of François "Papa Doc" Duvalier and his son Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier, whose combined reign incubated the goons that later plunged the nation into anarchy.

The irony is sharp. Kenya, which deployed police to Port-au-Prince to help fight those very gangs, now finds itself gripped by a version of the same problem at home. It has been laid bare by the open brandishing of crude weapons and attacks on leaders, with an assault on the Vihiga Senator cited as one example among many.

Despite tough talk from the government, the masterminds behind the violence remain at large, even where their actions have been captured on CCTV. That failure has sharpened questions over the erosion of the institutions mandated to restore order.

Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen insisted the state is acting. "The police are under instructions, through the policy guidance of the Cabinet Secretary, to deal with all goons without fear or favour," he said.

Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja struck a similar note. "Throughout the Republic of Kenya, whether it is in Central Kenya or Nyanza, goons will be dealt with as individuals who have committed crimes against the Constitution of Kenya," he said.

Yet the opposition, quick to play the victim, belongs to the same political class long accused of cashing in on unemployed Kenyans and exploiting their desperation, a dynamic that has mutated into a crisis now spinning out of control.

Democracy for Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua turned his fire on the Interior boss. "This Murkomen you have placed in the Interior Ministry will burn this country. Kenyans will say no to goonism. Murkomen is preparing this country to return to where we were in 2007," he said.

As the crisis edges into the territory of national security, religious leaders have offered a message of hope, even as they trace the problem back to a failure of political leadership that has repeatedly fallen short of policies to contain it.

"We must love one another. The notion that if someone holds a different political persuasion then that person is your enemy is what we must fight, because we have one country and it belongs to all of us," said Rt. Rev. Charles Ong'injo, Bishop of ACK Maseno South.

Religious leader Pius Njugu was blunt about the reach of the vice. "We do not know who these goons are. We see chaos at every gathering. They have even entered churches. We condemn them, and those who fund them," he said.

For a citizenry already bearing the brunt of poor leadership and a state unable to contain organized crime, a slide into lawlessness looks all but inevitable if the status quo holds.