OPINION: Diaz - Unlocking Africa’s green gold, roadmap to global SAF leadership

By Chris Diaz

Africa stands at a critical juncture in the global energy transition. While the continent holds what can be termed ‘green gold’, untapped reserves of agricultural waste, non-food biomass, and renewable potential, it currently contributes less than 1% to the global production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

This is a staggering missed opportunity, given that SAF can reduce aviation's lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel. With global aviation demand projected to double by 2050 and the industry committed to achieving net-zero emissions by the same year, the pressure for scalable, clean fuel solutions has never been greater.

The view is that Africa must urgently pivot from being a passive consumer of imported fossil fuels, which currently satisfy over 90% of its aviation needs to becoming a dominant producer in the emerging global SAF market, leveraging its unique resources to fuel sustainable economic transformation.

Africa’s agricultural sector, which employs over 55% of the continent’s working population, generates an estimated 500 million tonnes of crop residues annually, from maize stover and rice husks to sugarcane bagasse.

Currently, a significant portion of this biomass is burned or left to decompose, contributing to air pollution and releasing methane, a potent greenhouse gas. This "waste" represents a foundational asset.

For instance, if just 25% of Africa’s available agricultural residues were harnessed, studies suggest it could produce enough SAF to meet a substantial portion of the continent’s domestic aviation fuel demand, which is expected to reach 9 billion liters annually by 2030.

The economic logic is compelling. African nations spend billions on imported fossil fuels, leaving them vulnerable to price shocks and supply chain disruptions that drained over 120 billion dollars from the continent in 2022 alone.

By building localized SAF value chains around these feedstocks, countries can convert a cost center into a revenue generator. This shift would bolster energy security, insulate economies from volatile global oil markets, and direct investment into rural communities where feedstock collection and primary processing could create millions of new jobs.

Abundant feedstock alone is insufficient. The key challenge lies in conversion technology. Currently, the dominant production pathway, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), requires significant capital expenditure and sophisticated infrastructure. The global average production cost for SAF remains 2-4 times higher than for conventional jet fuel, a barrier to widespread adoption.

Africa has a unique opportunity to leapfrog by investing in next-generation technologies better suited to its context. The Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) pathway, which converts ethanol from cellulosic biomass, holds particular promise.

Africa’s potential for non-food biomass ethanol is enormous; Brazil, a biofuels leader, offers a relevant model. Furthermore, pioneering waste-to-fuel technologies, such as gasification of municipal solid waste which African cities generate at a rate of 250 million tonnes per year could address urban waste crises while creating fuel.

Strategic investments and partnerships with global tech providers are essential to reduce costs. Pilot projects, like the planned biorefinery in South Africa aiming to produce 100 million liters of SAF annually from sugarcane residues, demonstrate the scalable potential.

Building the backbone: Infrastructure and investment Imperatives

The continent’s infrastructure deficit is the most tangible barrier. As of 2023, there were fewer than 10 operational advanced biorefineries in Sub-Saharan Africa capable of producing biofuels at aviation grade, and dedicated SAF blending facilities at major airports are virtually non-existent.

Overcoming this requires a concerted public-private partnership (PPP) model. Governments must de-risk investments by providing clear long-term policies, while private capital and multilateral institutions fund the infrastructure.

The African Development Bank’s 500 million dollars facility for clean energy projects is a start, but SAF-specific financing must be prioritized. Establishing regional "bio-hubs" near feedstock-rich areas and major aviation hubs like Johannesburg, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa could create economies of scale.

Each major biorefinery represents a capital investment of 500 million dollars to 1 billion dollars, but can generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs across the value chain.

Government action is the indispensable catalyst. Effective policy frameworks must include legislation requiring a progressive blend of SAF would create guaranteed demand and stimulate market growth. International Civil Aviation organization the global regulator has partnered with over 100 countries, airlines and aircraft manufacturing groups to get commitment to contribute to net zero goals by 2050.

Implementing carbon credit mechanisms or offering tax breaks for SAF producers can bridge the current price gap with fossil fuels. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) notes that such incentives in the US and EU have been critical to early SAF growth.

The blending of SAF with jet fuel on 50.50 configuration has been tested safety by global airlines and Africa airlines are leading the way for transformation to reduce the costs of SAF by bulk production and global stakeholder supporting the implementation of alternative fuels options.

There must be regional harmonization. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides a platform to harmonize biofuel standards and regulations, enabling cross-border investment and creating a continent-wide market attractive to global capital.

African carriers must transition from fuel buyers to ecosystem partners. By committing to offtake agreements with nascent SAF producers, airlines like Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways, and South African Airways can provide the demand certainty needed to secure financing for first-of-their-kind plants. Ethiopian Airlines’ pledge to explore SAF usage on its long-haul routes is a positive signal.

The path to transforming Africa into a global SAF powerhouse is clear, though demanding. It requires mobilizing an estimated 100 billion dollars in investment over the next decade to build the necessary infrastructure and capacity.

The reward, however, is transformative: reducing the continent’s aviation sector emissions, creating millions new jobs by 2050 and generating a new export industry in green commodities.

Africa does not need to follow in the footsteps of others; it can chart its own course. By strategically leveraging its ‘green gold,’ the continent can secure its energy future, drive sustainable industrialization, and claim a leadership role in the global fight against climate change.

The time for decisive action is now. The world needs sustainable fuel; Africa has the resources to supply and produce sustainable solutions. The question is whether the continent will seize this moment to fuel its own ascent and growth of intra Africa trade and globalization.

The future of SAF will be strategic to reduce carbon emissions by 60 to 80 per cent and contribute to net zero goals, by private and public partnerships, that will result with impact to grow the aviation industry and create significant economic transformation in Africa.

Chris Diaz

Chairman, Adili Group & Conservationist