By-election showdown: Battle lines drawn as Ruto, Gachagua face off in first political test

The race to determine the next political direction in Kenya is shaping up to be a battle royale, pitting the government machinery led by President William Ruto against the opposition brigade captained by the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The November 27 by-election has already hit fever pitch, with a gruelling do-or-die contest expected in Mbeere North and Malava constituencies.

This could be the first political acid test for President Ruto and his former deputy ahead of the 2027 general election.

On paper it is UDA’s Leonard Muriuki Wamuthende against the Democratic Party candidate Newton Kariuki, alias Karish. However, the Mbeere North parliamentary by-election is more than the little-known names on the ballot papers.

The contest is turning out to be a national political clash, pitting Ruto against his former deputy Gachagua, with the President’s number two, Prof. Kithure Kindiki, pitching camp and drumming support for the ruling party.

President Ruto, whose fortunes in the Mt Kenya region have dwindled since the impeachment of Gachagua, is seeking to assert his authority and control of the vote-rich mountain region, but it is proving to be a herculean task.

As the campaign draws to a close next week Monday, all political cards and tricks are on the table.

From house-to-house vote hunting by both camps led by DP Kindiki and Gachagua, to political acts of generosity.

“Alafu mnatutumia kijana anitwa Itumbi anawapea skuma wiki. Watu wa Mbeere ni sungura? Ati anawapatia matharo ya shilingi 20 na nyanya,” said Gachagua.

It is a high-stakes showdown with serious ramifications as political heavyweights lock horns.

“I’m in Mbeere North. I have just arrived. I am not leaving here until the 28th of November,” said Prof. Kindiki.

“Na mimi kama Riggy G. Nitakaa Mbeere North mpaka Karish atangazwe mshindi wa ubunge Mbeere North,” said Gachagua.

A win for the UDA party in Mbeere North will no doubt give President Ruto a much-needed sigh of relief and strengthen his grip on the steep and slippery Mt Kenya region.

The contrary will bolster the Gachagua-led battalion and deal a heavy blow to President Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.

Malava constituency, just like Mbeere North, will also have a national bearing, with the government sending its most trusted foot soldiers to the volatile region.

President Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet has camped in Malava constituency for weeks, leading a well-oiled campaign for UDA’s David Ndakwa, who is facing off with DAP-K’s Seth Panyako.

“Ndakwa aende bunge, alete maendeleo, stima, maji, barabara,” said Kibet.

“Hata nyumba ya udongo, pipe ya maji inaweza ingia mpate maji. Kama ni barabara ntashirikiana na MCA alime 10km nilime na KeRRA mpate barabara,” said Ndakwa.

“Mheshimiwa Ruto tulikutafutia kura ukadanganya hawa watu. Ukitoa Linda Mama unasaidia kina mama ama unamaliza kina mama?” Posed Panyako.

A win for UDA’s candidate will send a strong message against the ‘one-term’ brigade in the Western Kenya region, while the opposite will give the opposition the arsenal ahead of the 2027 contest.