Amid protests, alliances reshape the crisis in Southern Yemen

Over recent days, popular protests have intensified across several districts of Aden, demanding improvements to electricity services and an end to prolonged power outages which demonstrators described as unprecedented in the history of the South, coinciding with soaring temperatures.

On Wednesday, media reports confirmed the death of one protester and injuries to others after Saudi-backed factions reportedly used live ammunition against demonstrators, triggering widespread public outrage across southern Yemen.

Activists on social media circulated accounts regarding incidents in the Crater district, which coincided with protests in the area. They asserted that participants had organized a peaceful demonstration without acts of vandalism or tire burning, and that security forces dispersed the gatherings by force, according to circulated reports.

Activists called for the release of all detainees and the return of confiscated equipment. No official comment has yet been issued by the relevant authorities regarding these allegations or the details of the measures that accompanied the events in the Crater district.

These protests come at a time when several southern governorates are experiencing deteriorating living conditions, rising prices, a salary crisis, and transformations across all fronts that the South has witnessed since the beginning of the current year.

Among the most significant developments witnessed in southern Yemen is the return of the Muslim Brotherhood, through its Islah Party, to the political scene. Its members have been appointed to ministerial portfolios, most notably the Ministry of Defense, for which Saudi Arabia selected Al-Aqeeli.

Reports speak of a “systematic infiltration” led by the group within Yemeni state institutions, exploiting the state of chaos imposed by the war to reshape the administrative and military apparatus along narrow organizational loyalties, far removed from any national or institutional standards. Observers also refer to a path of “soft empowerment” pursued by the group, whereby it did not limit itself to political participation but worked to reengineer the state's structures from within.

Meanwhile, an analytical report by writer Fernando Carvajal warned that recent Saudi policies in Yemen, particularly in Hadramawt governorate, could contribute to creating a political and security vacuum that would allow Al-Qaeda to reorganize and reemerge. He noted that “the coalition led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia since the launch of Operation Decisive Storm has undergone notable transformations, particularly following the airstrikes that targeted forces loyal to the Southern Transitional Council in December 2025.”

He affirmed that “these developments have reinforced the influence of the Yemeni Congregation for Reform Party, affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, in southern areas that had previously been liberated from Houthi control, provoking widespread rejection among southern forces.”

He also referred to meetings that brought together tribal and political figures affiliated with Islah and local leaders, considering that this rapprochement could raise concerns about the overlap between political influence and former extremist networks.

The report further emphasized that weakening the Southern Transitional Council could lead to counterproductive outcomes, given what it described as the council’s broad popular representation in the South, warning that any security or political vacuum could be exploited by extremist groups seeking to rebuild their networks.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Brotherhood’s presence has not been confined to the civil administration but has extended into the military establishment, which has reportedly become an arena for redistributing influence. Senior military ranks have allegedly been granted to individuals lacking professional qualifications in exchange for organizational loyalty, weakening the army’s command structure and transforming it from a national institution into a penetrated entity serving partisan agendas.

Khabar News Agency pointed out that “even more dangerous is what reports revealed regarding the phenomenon of ‘ghost soldiers,’ whereby hundreds of thousands of names were included on payroll lists despite having no actual presence on the ground, allowing billions of riyals to be diverted to financing networks linked to Brotherhood leaders, in one of the largest financial corruption operations in Yemen’s modern history.”

Observers assert that “this pattern of governance cannot be separated from a broader strategy adopted by the Muslim Brotherhood in conflict zones, based on exploiting chaos to rebuild influence through state institutions rather than outside them.”

Yemeni activist Anas Al-Khalidi spoke of what he described as organized movements led by the Muslim Brotherhood to reposition itself within the authorities, stressing that the organization seeks to exploit the complexities of the conflict to secure political gains that are detached from the interests of the state. He noted that the group relies on dual tactics, combining public rhetoric in support of stability with covert efforts to expand its influence within decision-making circles.

Observers believe that these movements are part of a broader strategy employed by political Islamist organizations in conflict environments, one that relies on leveraging crises to strengthen organizational and economic influence, benefiting from the absence of the state and the weakness of institutions.

At the same time, calls are growing within political and media circles to dismantle this influence and restore the concept of the national state, free from the dominance of groups operating across institutions. According to media reports, the continuation of this model threatens not only the structure of the Yemeni state but also opens the door to reproducing chaos in a more complex and dangerous form.

Meanwhile, recent military appointments have sparked widespread controversy, with critics arguing that they included individuals lacking military qualifications or linked to extremist backgrounds. They warned against what they described as the “Talibanization of the army” and the transformation of the military institution into a tool for perpetuating conflict and keeping Yemen in a state of weakness and division.

Reports point to the growing role of Salafi currents within military formations supported by the coalition, with dozens of predominantly Salafi brigades deployed across several southern governorates and the western coast.

Yemeni writer Bushra Al-Maqtari stated that “empowering the Salafi force at the expense of political forces means granting it control over both the political and civil spheres, which constitutes a catastrophic danger to the future of Yemen and its people.”

She added that “the pragmatism unconstrained by any political directives, and subject to neither political nor even national restraints other than loyalty to the ruler—that is, to the foreign intervening party—even if it has represented a regressive trajectory for the Salafi group, may lead it into the traps of opportunism, as well as contradiction and duality between the national context and the priorities of regional interveners.”

Meanwhile, analysts believe that Saudi Arabia, in the absence of a national army capable of maintaining order, has succeeded in transforming the Yemeni Salafi movement into a “pliant force” and a valuable card in its hands. From Dammaj to Aden, and from religious advocacy to militarization, the coming confrontation with the Houthis may be the benchmark that determines whether this “obedient” force will remain a tool in the hands of its creator, or become a new master on the battlefield.